ThreadFox

Reddit guides for makers ·

Reddit replies with links: what our 30% versus 1% result means

Our October 12 broadcast record reported 959 opens from 3,148 first replies with a link, against 14 from 1,430 without one: 30.5% versus 1.0%. That is a useful observation about our own outreach. It is not a Reddit-wide click rate or proof that adding a link causes the difference.

The counts behind the headline

Historical counts recorded October 12, 2026
Source and groupOpensRepliesOpens ÷ replies
Broadcast: linked first replies9593,14830.5%
Broadcast: unlinked first replies141,4301.0%
Direction: linked first replies9593,14830.5%
Direction: linked follow-ups5920029.5%
Direction: unlinked replies153,3190.45%

The “30% versus 1%” wording comes from the broadcast’s first-reply comparison. Our separate direction document uses a larger unlinked group: 15 / 3,319, or 0.45%. Both documents describe activity since October 5, but they do not fully reconcile their different unlinked groups. Keep each numerator with its own denominator; do not average or combine these rows. The linked first-reply row appears in both documents and is the same evidence, not a second sample.

What an “open” can and cannot tell us

Here, “opens” means the opens reported by the source documents for the destination pages associated with outreach. These documents do not establish that every open is a unique recipient, that every reply was read, or that unlinked visits were attributed with the same reliability as linked visits. We therefore show opens per recorded reply, not a percentage of all people who saw the reply.

The groups were not a randomized experiment. Link eligibility, community, message, audience and timing can differ. Our plausible explanation is that a relevant direct link makes the next step easier than asking someone to find a site themselves. This comparison cannot isolate that effect from the other differences.

Use the lesson where a link is welcome

Answer the person’s question in the reply itself. If a relevant product link is permitted, explain what is at the destination and disclose that it is yours. Use a destination that continues the answer. If the community prohibits that link, the observed gap does not justify adding it anyway or hiding it behind a redirect.

A useful answer without a link can still help someone. It may simply be a poor fit for a campaign whose next step requires a website visit. Choose eligible communities instead of trying to work around their rules.

Measure the next step separately

Keep distinct counts for replies submitted, publication verified, recorded page opens, signups, checkout starts and paid customers. Label any missing tracking as unknown. Do not report a checkout as a sale or a visit as a user who tried the app.

The direction document recorded two Reddit kit sales at that historical checkpoint. It does not provide a reconciled purchase denominator for the table above. We cannot derive a reliable sales conversion rate from these rows or promise that another app will reproduce them.

Sources and limits

docs/BROADCAST-20261012.md, “Facts used in every post,” and docs/DIRECTION.md, “The evidence it rests on,” both dated October 12, 2026. Percentages here are recomputed from their counts. These are internal historical summaries, not independently audited analytics or a controlled experiment.

Read the dated aggregate evidence excerpt (JSON). It contains the counts and source labels used here, without account or customer records. These are historical observations from our own work, not a representative survey of Reddit or a promise of results.